具有部分洪水信息的不确定性防洪优化调度

Operation of Uncertain Flood Control Optimal With Partial Flood Information

在实际防洪调度中，对洪水过程往往仅知道部分洪水信息，且难以推断出它的概率分布．作者将解决不确定决策问题的一些方法和准则推广到具有部分洪水信息的防洪调度中，论述了如何充分利用气象水文信息，去构造入流慨率分布空间，并阐述了具有部分信息的不确定决策准则，在一定程度上解决了这个问题．

n practical flood control operation,only partial flood Information is known,and it is difficult to infer its probability distribution. The authors use the methods and criteria of solving decision-making under uncertainty to the optimal operation of flood control with partial flood information,and expound howto use hydrological information to construct inflow probability distribution,therefore this problem is solved to some extent.