云南粘虫的预测预报研究

A Study on the Forecast of Armyworm (Mythimna separata Walker) in Yunnan Province

粘虫(Mythimna separata Walker)是云南粮食作物的重要害虫之一。1年内有4次危害:a.1～2月在海拔1600m以下,越冬代粘虫危害玉米、小麦、黄豆和绿肥;b.4～5月,海拔1300～2000m范围内,1代粘虫危害小麦;c.6～7月,海拔1000～3200m地区,2代粘虫危害水稻、玉米、陆稻、小麦、青棵和燕麦等;d.8～9月,海拔1000m以下,3代粘虫危害晚稻。一般来说,4～5月麦子正处于成熟期,故云南对1代粘虫往往不予防治。因此,仅对越冬代、2代和3代粘虫的预测预报技术进行了研究。为了提高粘虫的预测预报水平和适时防治其危害,试将越冬代、2代和3代粘虫发生趋势的回归统计预测预报研究予以总结。为方便有关生产单位应用这些研究结果,所有的回归预测式均已编制成计算机程序。

The oriental armyworm is one of the important pests of grain crops in Yunnan Province. There are four periods of damage in a year. l.From January to February. in regions below 1 600m. alt. the armyworm of the overwintering generation damages corn, wheat, fababean and green manure; 2.From April to May, in regions between 1 300m. to 2 000m. alt. the armyworm of the first generation damages wheat; 3.In June and July, in regions from 1 000m. to over 3 200m. alt. the armyworm of the second generation damages rice, corn, wheat, upland rice, highland barley and oats; 4.In August and September, in regions below 1 000m. alt. the armyworm of the third generation invades late rice. But. the damage of the first generation of armyworm on wheat is not controlled in Yunnan Province. because the wheat has reached maturity during April and May.In order to raise the standard of forecast and to control the armyworm in good time, this paper has summarized our study work on the forecast of regression equations of the overwintering generation. the second generation and the third generation of armyworm. All of these regressive equations are made into a computer program so that we can use the above regression equations easily.