摘要
利用田间系统调查资料和文献报道资料,组建了水稻褐飞虱种群动态模拟模型,该模型采用生理时间、主要成分包括迁入种群的迁入时间、数量和格局;密度、生育阶段、温度、天敌和人为措施对死亡率和生殖力的影响;密度、生育阶段和短翅型比及迁出率的关系.有效性检验表明,该模型模拟的种群时间和数量动态与实际观察动态相似,在对比检验的10组历史资料中,模拟预测的全部主害代高峰期和9组主害代高峰虫量与实测值相符.实测种群动态与模拟种群动态间的差异表明,深入研究秋季低温对生殖力和死亡率的持续影响,研究田间天敌作用的正确评价及水稻生长模型,将有助于理解和预测褐飞虱的种群动态.
Simulation model of brown planthopper ( Nilaparvata lugens Stal ) on rice was constructed using intensive field observation, together with data obtained from the literature. The physiological time was adopted in the model. The main components include the time, size and parttorn of immigration! the effects of density, variety, crop stage, temperature and age on fecundity; the effects of density, crop stage, high temperature, natural enemies and artificial measures on mortality; the relationship of prorortion brachyptcry in adults and emigration to density and crop stage. Validation showed that the simulated dynamics of population time and size were similar to the observed ones, and that simulated peak times and 9 simulated peak sizes of main damaging generation in 10 sets of data were close to those observed. The comparison of discrepancies between simulated and observed population dynamics indicated that a thorough study on the continued effects of low temperature on fecundity and mortality in autumn, the quantitative relation between planthopper and natural enemies in fields and rice growth model was conducive to the understanding and forecast of the population dynamics.
关键词
水稻
褐飞虱
种群动态
模拟模型
brown planthopper
population dynamics
simulation model
validation
