油菜籽含油量与气象因子的相关及预报模式

The Correlation between Oil Contents of Rapesced and Meteorological Factors and the Model for Oil Contents Prediction

近年来,长江下游亚区菜籽含油量的变异范围处34.～44.9％,集中在39.0～40.9％.年度间差异3～5％左右.本区内相同品种的地域差异为纬度每增高一度,含油量增加0.4439％.种子形成期光强减弱至自然光强的1/4,含油量比对照降低16.63％;温度与水分差异亦可使含油量降优5～7％.种子形成期是气象因子影响含油量的关键时期,含油量与此期的降水量呈负相关,与日平均温度、≥3℃有效积温、日照时数呈正相关.因此,可用种子形成期的日照时数为主要气象指际,抽苔期日平均温度为辅助指标,在此基础上初步建立含油量预报的数学模型.

Experimental results showed that the oil contents ( OC ) of rapeseed varied from 34.0 to 44.9% and was concentrated within 39.9-40.9% grown in the Sub-zone of Yangtze River lower basin. The difference of OC between years was observed to be 3-5%. Regional variation of the same varieties had shown a 0.4439% increase of OC with every 1° increase of latitude synchronously. It had been proved that, when solar radiation intensity was decreased to one quarter of natural SR, OC decreased by 16.63%; temperature and water condition could also lead to 5-7% decrease of OC. The seed-formation stage was the key stage in which the OC was influenced by meteorological factors. Negative correlation had been found between OC and precipitation in this stage, and possitive one between OC and daily mean temperature, ≥3℃ effective accumulated temperature, and solar radiation hours. Therefore, solar radiation hours during seed-formation stage could be used as the main meteorological index, and daily mean temperature as a supplemental one to predict oil contents of rapeseed.