民工荒、技工短缺与农民工社会保障制度建立的临界点

Lack of Peasant Worker,Technical Worker and the Critical Point for Establishing Social Security Institution for Peasant Worker

本文把农民工的乡城迁移分成三个阶段,分析了中国二元经济结构与农民工迁移的关系及导致中国民工荒和技工短缺的原因,运用制度变迁的有关理论分析了农民工的退出所导致民工荒和技工短缺对政府建立农民工社会保障制度的成本收益的影响,并通过把目前城乡收入状况与中国发生重大制度变迁的1978年情况作对比,认为目前的民工荒和技工短缺是制度变革达到临界点的标志。

The paper divides the rural - urban migration of China into three parts to analyze the relationship between dual economy and peasant workers＇ migration, and the reason that lead to the lack of peasant workers and technical workers. Depending on the theory of institutional change, the paper analyze the impact of lacking of peasant and technical workers on the governmental profit and cost for the establishment of the social security institution for peasant workers. The paper also showed it＇ s the indicator of critical point for institutional reform that is lacking of peasant and technical workers, after comparing the condition of ruralurban gap at present with that in 1978.