基于遗传算法地震短期综合预报分类系统在祁连山及海原地震带的应用

APPLICATION OF THE CLASSIFYING SYSTEM OF SHORT-TERM COMPREHENSIVE EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION BASED ON THE GENETIC ALGORITHMS IN QILIAN MOUNTAIN AND HAIYUAN SEISMIC ZONE

应用“基于遗传算法的地震预报分类系统”,建立祁连山及海原地震带3个区的以预报未来3个月最大地震为目标的地震短期综合预报模型。结果表明,能预测出5级以上地震,给出的有效重叠震级区间的模型在祁连西段、祁连中东段检验情况较好,而在海原断裂带应用检验较差。另外对较低震级的检验情况一般要好于较高震级。对2003年10月25日甘肃民乐、山丹间6.1、5.8级地震进行了实际的应用检验。

We used the classifying system of earthquake prediction to build the short-term comprehensive earthquake prediction model in 3 region of Qilian mountain and Haiyuan seismic zones, the intention is to predict the greatest earthquakes in future 3 months. The result shows, the M≥5 can be predicted and the model of the magnitude overlap can be given in the west and east-middle of the Qilian mountain, but the Haiyuan didn＇t, the test is better in lower magnitudes than in greater magnitudes. We used it in Minle M6. 1 and Shandanjian M5.8 earthquakes in Gansu province on Oct. 25, 2003.