住房需求的收入弹性:模型、估计与预测

INCOME ELASTICITY OF HOUSING DEMAND IN CHINA:MODEL,ESTIMATION AND FORECAST

住房需求的收入弹性是描述居民住房需求特征的重要指标。本文从估计收入弹性所需的各个要素入手,深入探讨了收入弹性的理论含义和估计方法。在此基础上,利用微观截面数据来克服宏观数据的缺陷,对样本总体、不同收入家庭和不同年龄家庭的收入弹性分别进行了估计。实证分析的结果表明,北京市购房家庭的收入弹性约为0.86,该值比西方发达国家要低。这说明住房仍偏于消费品,居民住房投资的意识较为淡泊。对不同收入和不同年龄家庭的分组估计表明,随着收入和年龄的增长,收入弹性均呈现先升后降的趋势。收入弹性也被用于对一个城市的住房需求增长进行预测。这些定量结论对于分析住房市场结构和预测住房需求的变化,有重要的理论和实践意义。

Income elasticity of housing demand is an important index reflecting the characteristics of housing demand. This paper investigates the definition and estimation of income elasticity, and uses cross-section data to estimate the income elasticity of households who buy commercial houses in Beijing. The statistical results show that the elasticity is 0. 86 for those households, smaller than developed countries. So housing still belongs to consumption goods, and households have little housing investment motives. The elasticity estimation moves up first and then declines along with the increase of income. It also raises and then drops with the aging of the household head. Income elasticity is also employed to estimate the increase of housing demand in a city. The quantitative conclusions of this paper have important implications for the study of market structure and the forecast of housing demand.