固定汇率制度与浮动汇率制度下经济的自动稳定性

Automatic Stability of an Economy under Fixed or Floating Regime

本文运用规范的开放宏观模型和比较静态分析方法,讨论了固定汇率制度或浮动汇率制度下、如果没有政策的干预,面对真实或名义瞬时冲击时的产出和物价的自动稳定性。分析表明,两种汇率制度下经济稳定表现与经济系统的结构参数有密切的关系,没有一个汇率制度在所有情形下都表现得最好。但对特定的发展中国家经济结构特征和外生冲击来源的可能性来说,相对于浮动汇率制度,固定汇率制度更利于经济的自动稳定。

This article utilizes a formal opening macroeconomic model and comparison static state approach to compare the automatic stability of output and price without any policy interventions to the economy under fixed or floating exchange rate regime in the face of real or nominal transitory shocks. The analysis indicates that, the performances of the two regimes are very closely related to the structural parameters of the particular economy, and none of the two regimes can perform best under all conditions. With regard to the types of the shock possible impinging upon and the structural parameters of the developing country, the fixed exchange-rate regime should be more desirable to the floating exchange rate system to keep the economy stable.