房地产市场、银行信贷与经济增长——基于面板数据的经验研究

Real Estate Market, Bank Lengding and Economic Growth

本文针对近年来我国房地产市场价格持续攀升但市场需求不降反升、银行信贷资金迅速向房地产业集中以及房地产市场发展与经济增长的作用等问题,以全国和各省、市、自治区的面板数据,进行了实证分析。分析结果显示,我国房地产市场供给约束问题非常严重,尤其是考虑到居民收入增长因素后,房地产市场的供求矛盾十分突出;银行房地产开发贷款和个人住房贷款强有力地支撑了房地产市场的供求;房地产市场的发展也拉动了经济的增长,但这一作用没有我们想象的大。因此,目前我国针对房地产市场的宏观调控和各项监管措施,都应该从供求两方面出发,在金融等政策上要保持连续性,并加强制度建设,更好地发挥市场机制的作用。

Based on national and provincial panel data, we made an empirical study on the real estate boom, bank lending and economic growth. The finding shows that one of the most sever problem in the real estate market is the constraints of the housing supply compared to the demand if we consider the effects of the residents＇ income growth. Bank loans are the most effective factor pulling the housing industry growth, both on the supply side and the demand side. To our surprise, the effect of housing consumption on the economic growth is less strong than we have expected, considering the cyclical changes of the economy. The paper concludes that the government must take measures directly at both the supply and the demand sides, keep the policies＇ continuity, strengthen the institutional progress and make the market mechanism more effective.