中国货币流通速度下降的影响因素:一个新的分析视角被引量：91

Determinants of the Decline in Income-Velocity of Money in China: A New Perspective

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摘要改革开放以来绝大多数年份里货币供给的增长速度大于经济增长速度与通货膨胀率之和,即货币流通速度在持续下降。本文分农业和非农业两个部门考察了中国不同部门的货币需求行为,验证了非农产业的边际货币需求倾向远大于农业部门。这意味着改革以来随着农业在国民经济中比重下降,新增的货币量不仅要满足总体经济增长的需求,还要满足非农产业比重上升所引致的需求。因此整个社会的货币需求增长速度便会高于收入的增长速度,超出经济增长的货币供应不会全部体现为通货膨胀。这为认识中国的货币需求行为以及解释改革以来货币流通速度的下降提供了另外一个视角。 The income-velocity of money has been declining in China since reform. We study the money demand behaviors of the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, and find that the marginal propensity to demand money is much higher in the non-agricultural sector than in the agricultural sector. This implies that as the share of the agricultural sector in national income declines, monetary expansion is expected not only to meet the needs of overall economic expansion, but also to meet the needs of the growing share of the non-agricultural sector. Consequently, the growth of money demand will exceed that of income. All money supply exceeding the economic expansion will not lead to inflation pressure. This provides a new perspective to understand the decline in the income-velocity of money in China.

作者赵留彦王一鸣

机构地区北京大学经济学院京大学经济学院金融系

出处《中国社会科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2005年第4期17-28,共12页 Social Sciences in China

关键词中国货币流通增长速度影响因素通货膨胀率货币需求

分类号 F822.2 [经济管理—财政学]

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