摘要
本文采用多元分析方法,借助计算机快速运算,对浙江渔场冬汛带鱼渔获量预报作了多种验算分析,结果表明:多元非线性回归及逐步回归分析用于冬汛带鱼渔获量预报较为适宜,所建方程的回归检验和独立样本检验较为理想,四年的预报正确率达95%以上,取得了较好的预报效果。目前,用本文方程预报能满足组织渔业生产的要求。
By means of computerized multiple analyses, the authors made various checkups on the efficacy of different prediction methods for hairtail catches in Zhejiang offshore waters during the winter fishing season. The results show that the analyses of multiple non-linear regression and gradual regression are suitable for predicting the fishing catch, and the tests of regression and single sample given by the established equations are satisfactory. On the basis of these equations, the accuracy rates of prediction have been over 95% in a period of four years. The method of prediction given here is considered capable of meeting the needs of hairtail production.
