摘要
In the asset valuation of oil and gas reserves, it is discovered that the production decline trend of wells is not very obvious and that it is hard to make a production forecast matching the production history, thus resulting in a significant deviation of oil and gas asset value. For production with a significant fluctuation, the value deviation is also considerable if the matching production, which is predicted with classical decline methods, cannot appropriately reflect the time value distribution of actual production. To mitigate such a deviation, a concept is proposed concerning the value constrained production forecast and the value constrained production decline model is developed. A field case is demonstrated as an application of such a model. The model can significantly decrease the risk in the value deviation of a production decline analysis and be applied to the production forecasts for a single well, well clusters, blocks or field scale, and even for other mining industries.
In the asset valuation of oil and gas reserves, it is discovered that the production decline trend of wells is not very obvious and that it is hard to make a production forecast matching the production history, thus resulting in a significant deviation of oil and gas asset value. For production with a significant fluctuation, the value deviation is also considerable if the matching production, which is predicted with classical decline methods, cannot appropriately reflect the time value distribution of actual production. To mitigate such a deviation, a concept is proposed concerning the value constrained production forecast and the value constrained production decline model is developed. A field case is demonstrated as an application of such a model. The model can significantly decrease the risk in the value deviation of a production decline analysis and be applied to the production forecasts for a single well, well clusters, blocks or field scale, and even for other mining industries.
