汇率、国民收入与商品进出口——基于标准国际贸易分类的实证检验

The Exchange Rate,GDP and Foreign Trade: An Empirical Research Based on the SITC

本文在标准国际贸易分类的基础上研究人民币汇率和国民收入与我国商品进出口之间的关系。通过对变量使用平稳性检验与协整分析,我们发现:我国各类商品出口受世界需求水平的影响较大,对实际汇率的弹性存在较大差异;商品进口受我国经济发展水平影响较大,对实际汇率变动的反应与理论预测并不完全一致。文中给出了合理解释。

The writer of this paper divides China＇s foreign trade goods into nine categories based on the SITC, and inspects the relationships between the REER and other real economic factors and China＇s foreign trade. We fred our country＇s export largely influenced by the world＇s demand level, but there exists a big difference in elasticity to the real exchange rate. Furthermore , our country＇s development level also exerts an influence on the imports, and is inconsistent with the theory forecast, We also provide some rational explanations.