我国区域经济空间收敛研究

On the Regional Economic Convergences in China

该文利用计量经济学方法,研究1952—2000年我国区域经济空间收敛情况。模型结果显示,以人均实际GDP为指标,这一时期我国区域增长变化过程中既不存在σ型收敛趋势,也不存在β型收敛趋势。根据不同时段经济发展的政治环境,把整个时期划分为3个时期:经济发展政治环境相对有利的1952—1966年、经济发展政治环境不利的1966—1979年和经济发展政治环境越来越好的1979—2000年。其中1966—1979年既不存在β型收敛,也不存在σ型收敛;1952—1966年存在β型收敛;1979—2000年既存在β型收敛,也存在σ型收敛。1952—1966年是典型的中央计划经济时期,1979—2000年是转型经济时期。结合国内外研究报道和笔者的研究,初步得出如下结论:不管是计划经济、转型经济还是市场经济,只要具备一定的经济发展环境,在其区域增长中就存在一定的收敛趋势。

In this paper from different angle and employing several quantitative methods, regional ecoonomic growth convergences in China during 1952 - 2000 have been scrutinized. The paper provides a new insight on regional growth change trends across regions in China during the period. On the whole, there were no regional growth convergences at the level of per capita GDP during 1952 -2000. But during the sub- period 1952- 1966,which was called the central planned economic period with relatively favorable political environment for economic development, there was only β convergence. During the sub- period 1979 - 2000, which was called the transition economic one, there were not only σ convergences, but also β convergence, and whether σ convergence or β convergences were evident and significant statistically in this sub - period. Whereas during the sub- period 1966 - 1979 called ＂Cultural Revolution period＂ which was full of political turmoil, there were no convergences, but evident divergence. Based on previous studies and the empirical resuits in this paper, it is concluded that for any economy whether it is a market- based economy,or planned,or transitional one, where there is relatively favorable political environment for economic development, there is regional convergence in terms of per capita income/GDP.