我国20世纪90年代缺血性心脏病死亡国际比较和趋势预测

Mortality Analysis and International Comparison of Ischaemic Heart Disease

目的描述我国20世纪90年代缺血性心脏病死亡在国际上所处位置,预测将来缺血性心脏病所带来的疾病负担,以便表明缺血性心脏病防治重点以及优先考虑的对策。方法根据第九次修订国际疾病分类(ICD鄄9)标准,对卫生部1990-1999年“全国卫生统计年报”资料及日本等国家资料进行描述性分析。采用灰色动态模型理论建立我国城乡的缺血性心脏病死亡趋势预测模型。结果20世纪90年代我国城乡缺血性心脏病死亡率在国际间处于较低水平,但呈上升趋势。结论我国缺血性心脏病的标化死亡率均明显低于西方发达国家,社会经济及卫生保健水平不是影响缺血性心脏病死亡率高低的唯一因素。

Objective To point out the emphasis of the prevention and control,the development trend and the international position of Ischaemic Heart Disease （IHD） in 90＇s of the 20th century in China,and to predict the disease burden. Methods According to the ICD-9, the data of the National Medicine Statistic Annals of the Ministry of Health from 1990 to 1999 were collected and analyzed, and the theory of grey dynamic model was adopted to establish the predicting model of IHD mortality trend among the urban and the rural areas of China. Results The mortality of IHD in 90＇s in China was lower among international levels, but emerged the ascending trend. Conclusions The mortality of IHD in China was lower than that in other developed countries, and the level of economy and health care was not the only influent factors for the mortality of IHD.