球类比赛数学模拟竞技诊断的理论与实践——以乒乓球比赛分析为例

Theory and Practice of Performance Diagnosis through Mathematical Simulation in Ball Game

介绍了球类比赛数学模拟竞技诊断的理论与方法,并用乒乓球比赛的数学模拟竞技诊断实例进行了说明。数学模拟竞技诊断的基本思想是用一个比赛状态(技术或战术)转移概率矩阵概括地描述一场球类比赛,在此基础上通过马尔可夫链计算比赛获胜概率并进一步确定各种比赛状态(技术或战术)的竞技效率值。与传统的球类比赛分析方法相比较,数学模拟竞技诊断不但能通过各种比赛状态的转移概率对技、战术进行描述性统计分析,而且能确定各种比赛状态(技术或战术)对整场比赛获胜概率的影响。

This paper introduced the theory and method of performance diagnosis through mathematical simulation in ball game, illustrated with the instance of table tennis match. The idea is that match can be described by transition probability matrix of game states （tactics or technique）. On the basis of it,the match point probability can be calculated by using Markovchain and performance relevance of each game state （tactic or technique） is determined.Comparing with traditional method of match ana[ysis, performance diagnosis through mathematical simulation can not only carry on the descriptive statistical analysis of each game state （tactic or technique）, but also determine the relevance of each game state （tactic or technique）.