近50年来大连气候变化趋势分析

Climate Change Tendency in Dalian for Last 50 Years

利用滑动平均、滑动变异系数等方法对大连1951～2001年间的气温与降水量资料进行分析,发现大连气温具有明显的上升趋势,降水量有逐渐减少趋势;各季气温变化趋势有所差异,冬季升温最明显,但在近期升温幅度有所下降,而夏季气温近期升幅比较明显;整体气候呈现暖干化趋势。在此基础上,进一步分析了大连1949年以来严重冷、暖冬事件及多雨与少雨年出现的规律与特征。

With moving average, moving variance method, analysis of the temperature and precipitation of Dalian during 1951--2001 is made. It shows that the temperature of Dalian has the obvious warm tendency and the precipitation of Dalian has the decrease tendency. The changes of temperature are different in the four seasons. During the 50 years, the rise of temperature in winter is the most obvious, but the rise range of temperature in winter has been descent, and the range of temperature in summer has been increased. The climate of Dalian is becoming warmer and drier.In addition, the serious cold/warm winter events and the rainless stage and pluvial stage in Dalian are also studies.