影响山西省农机化水平的多因素逐步回归分析

Stepwise regression analysis on the influencing factors of Shanxi agriculture mechanization level

针对定量分析农机化发展影响因素困难的问题,依据2002年山西省115个县(市)影响农机化水平的10个指标数据,采用逐步回归分析法,建立了山西省农业机械化发展水平影响因素逐步回归模型。模型分析结果表明,山西省农机化发展水平的主要影响因素按程度高低依次为:每hm2农业机械总动力、人均国内生产总值、丘陵山地比例、农民人均纯收入、每hm2农业机械原值、农业劳动力占总劳动力比重和无霜期7个因素。提升综合农机化作业水平的关键在于在加强农机动力配备的同时还有赖于国民经济的发展、农业劳动力的合理转移,以及农民收入的提高和适合丘陵山地作业的小型农业机械的研制和推广。

This paper introduces the stepwise regression analysis in view of the difficulties to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of the development of agricultural mechanization. Referring to the data in 2002 of 115 counties （cities） in Shanxi province, this paper set up the stepwise regression model of influencing factors of development level of agriculture mechanization of Shanxi province. As the analyzing result of the model shows, there are 7 main factors to influence the development level of agriculture mechanization of Shanxi province, In accordance with their influence, they are arranged successively as total motive force of agricultural machinery of each hectare, per capita gross domestic product, proportion of mountain and hill, per capita net income of farmers, agricultural machinery initial value of eachhectare, proportion of agricultural workforce and frost-free period. Thus the key to improve the agriculture mechanization level is to strengthen the motive force of agricultural machinery. Meanwhile, the national economy and so on should be attached importance to.