车臣问题——普京执政的契机与挑战

The Issue of Chechen——Opportunity and Challenge for Vladimir Putin's Ruling

本文分析了车臣问题对确立普京执政地位的特殊作用,概括了普京的车臣政策以及普京执政以来车臣局势的演变。普京总统对车臣政策的基本点是:(1)以军事打击为主,政治解决为辅;(2)不同任何车臣非法武装分子谈判;(3)培植、依靠车臣人中的亲俄派管理车臣内部事务。普京的车臣政策在显示国家权威方面达到了预期目的,但却没能消除恐怖主义的威胁。目前,俄罗斯严峻的反恐形势、反恐的巨大社会成本和反恐的长期化趋势已成为对普京实现其强国战略的掣肘。能否在短期内取得反恐的胜利,是普京在其第二任期内面对的一道难题。

Analyzing the special role of the Chechen issue in establishing Putin's ruling position, my article generalizes his Chechen policy as well as the evolution of the situation in Chechen since he took power. The basic points of his Chechen policy can be summed up as : (1) Concentrating on military attacks as the main with political solution as the supplementary, (2) No negotiations with any illegal armed elements in Chechen, and (3) Rearing and relying on pro-Russian Chechen elements in running Chechen internal affairs. While achieving the anticipated targets of demonstrating state authority, Putin's Chechen policy fails to remove the threat of terrorism. The present stern anti-terrorist situation in Russia, the gigantic social cost of anti-terrorist fight, and its long term tendency have become an impediment to Putin's strategy of making Russia powerful. Whether or not he can win the anti-terrorist fight in a short period will be a challenge as well as a hard nut for him to crack in his second term of office.