中国2000年及2005年恶性肿瘤发病死亡的估计与预测

Cancer Incidence and Mortality Estimates and Prediction for year 2000 and 2005 in China

目的利用我国现有较完善的癌症发病死亡资料,对2000年及2005年我国恶性肿瘤的发病及死亡进行了估计与预测,以期对我国恶性肿瘤的临床、基础研究及防治策略的制定提供科学依据及参考。方法采用Poisson回归模型拟合卫生部1991～1999年上报WHO的中国恶性肿瘤死亡趋势,结合我国第二次全死因调查结果及我国入选《五大洲癌症发病率》第八卷的肿瘤登记处的癌症发病死亡数据,利用对数线性模型(基于Poisson分布),估计与预测2000年及2005年中国癌症的发病、死亡状况。结果与上世纪90年代初第二次全国死因调查结果比较,我国恶性肿瘤的死亡呈明显上升趋势。结论恶性肿瘤已成为我国本世纪一个巨大的卫生、经济负担,其持续上升的趋势影响着我国卫生政策、资源配置策略的制定和调配。如何有效、有力的控制肿瘤将成为本世纪我国卫生领域的一个重点课题。

Objective Using most comprehensive available data on cancer in China, estimated and predicted the national cancer incidence and mortality profile in 2000 and 2005. To provide evidence and reference for clinic, basic research and making prevention and control strategy on cancer in China. Methods Using Poisson regression model fitted the cancer mortality trends during 1991 -- 1999, based on data reported to WHO from Ministry of Health in China. Combing with the second national mortality survey and the data from the cancer registries in China which involved in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents the 8th version, using the log - linear model （based on Poisson distribution）, estimated and projected the cancer incidence and mortality profile for year 2000 and 2005 in China. Results Comparing with the second mortality survey done in early 1990s, the cancer mortality in China dramatically increased. Conclusion Due to the double effects from both continue population growth and ageing and the changing from the cancer risk factors in China, cancer is becoming a huge burden for health and economic in China in 21^st centry. It continuing increasing trend is influencing the making and arranging the national health care policy and health resources allocation. How to effectively and efficiently control cancer will be a important health project in China during this century.