渐进改革经济中的最优增长

The Optimal Growth in the Gradually-reformed Economy

本文从我国经济体制改革的现实出发,结合经济增长理论的最新进展,把渐进改革等制度变迁纳入经济增长模型,考察了渐进改革经济中的最优增长路径。在理论上,我们证明了渐进改革经济中的最优增长路径不仅能够刻画经济的长期增长趋势,而且还能够刻画长期增长中的波动。在实证分析中我们发现,渐进改革经济中的最优增长路径能够显著地刻画我国1979～1999年间的经济增长,而且该结论是稳健的。

What＇s the optimal growth path in the gradually-reformed economy？ Theoretically, the paper constructs a simple dynamic model and shows the optimal growth is a decreasing function of the time at any stage of gradual reform process. Therefore, there appears business cycle in the gradually-reformed economy, which we callit the reform business cycle. Empirically, this paper estimates China＇s economic growth path over the period 1979-1999. Fortunately, empirical findings are consistent with our dynamic model.