持久冲击与中国经济增长的波动

Persistent Shocks and China's Economic Fluctuation

文章依据一个内在逻辑一致的统计程序考察了1952～2003年间中国实际GDP序列的数据生成过程.发现中国实际GDP序列遵循一个带漂移的随机游走,因而它有一个随机波动的长期趋势;进一步的分析还揭示了长期趋势的波动幅度不小于短期周期性波动的幅度.这些事实在理论上意味着产出序列增长趋势的变化和它经常偏离趋势的运动共同构成了中国产出序列的波动.因此,有理由相信来自供给方面的持久冲击是导致中国经济波动不可忽视的重要原因.

In this paper, the author examines China＇ s real GDP time series according to a consistent statistical procedure. He finds out that the trend of China＇s GDP series is greatly fluctuating, resulting in high persistence of China＇ s economic fluctuation. Then he discusses the implications of these facts under a simple theoretical framework. In a word, this paper highlights the importance of persistent shocks with respect to China＇ s economic fluctuation.