中国能源消费变化过程及其时空效应分析

China energy consumption change and its spatial-temporal effect analysis

作为国家生存与发展的重要物质基础,能源一直是人类关注的热点。分析中国大规模工业化以来能源消费,结果表明:尽管中国能源生产建设取得了巨大的成就,但是能源结构作用系数仍然高于世界平均水平,在今后一段时间内中国能源消费总量还会持续增长;时间效应分析表明,与发达国家相同,中国能源消费强度呈现明显的倒"U"字型;在空间效应方面,尽管中国始终在致力于提高本能源的自给水平,但是高速发展的社会经济却对有限的资源基础提出了越来越大的挑战。

As the subsistence and development base of nations, energy is the focus of human being all the time. It is analyzed in this paper that China energy consumption change and its spatial-temporal effect since large-scale industrialization, the results indicate that： （1） Although China has made great progress in energy production and primary energy consumption structure have improved greatly, the energy structure coefficient is still bigger than the average of the world and total energy consumption of China will keep increasing in the incoming few years;（2） Temporal effect of energy consumption analyses indicate that, like to developed country China energy consumption intensity presents apparent invert “U”;（3） Spatial effect analysis indicates that high speed economy development bring forward greater challenge for this and have to resort to international energy market,