关税递减的福利效应及其实证分析——CEPA货物贸易零关税的一种验证

The Welfare Effects of Tariff Reduction and the Quantitative Analysis——An Evidence of CEPA's Zero Tariff

随着区域经济合作的不断加强,有关区域关税递减的福利影响日益受到关注。以中国CEPA货物贸易零关税制度的实施为研究对象,考虑在一定的假设条件下,忽略贸易转移,而供给曲线向上倾斜的情况,从理论上分析关税壁垒消除带来的福利效应,并从实证上对其验证。首先从关税损失和增值税创造角度分析税收收入所受的影响;其次引入数量指数和价格指数,计算各部分的损失和收益,近似给出福利影响的数量值。测算结果更直观的表明:零关税制度导致了内地税收的损失和福利损失,但相对整体进口情况来看,其影响非常有限;但部分行业的港产品进口的增长带来的冲击需要进一步关注。这些直观的量化结果可以为区域再进一步建立自由贸易区提供参考,可以为产业结构的调整和优化提供依据。

With the development of regional integration, the welfare effects of degressive tariff reduction have received increasing attention. In this paper, we aim at providing the theoretical and quantitative analysis about this important issue by studying CEPA’s zero tariff treatment. After evaluating all-around impact on tax income from both tariff loss and value-added tax creation, we calculate the total welfare value approximately by conducting quantity index and price index. Our empirical results show that there has emerged the loss of welfare in Chinese mainland, but its effect is not obvious. However, for several industries, the impact of growth in the related HongKong’s domestic exports should be paid more attention. All of these evidence may offer insights into future development of free trade area and improvement of the industrial structure.