考虑结构变动的技术进步贡献率测算

Estimation of Technological Progress'Contribution to Economic Growth Based on the Structure Change

对一个国家或地区而言,传统技术进步对经济增长贡献率的测算方法有一个内涵的假定:该经济体各部门具有相同的增长率,即产业结构不变。本文引入投入产出技术这一多部门模型,并结合指数分解等方法,将余值分解为技术进步贡献和产业结构变化贡献两部分,从而将产业结构调整或者说资源重新配置的贡献分离出来,得到结构变动条件下技术进步贡献率的测度。并利用中国的相关数据做了实证分析。

the classical methodology for the technological progress＇ contribution to the economic growth for a nation or a region is based on an inherent assumption：different sectors of a economic entity developed at the same rate of growth, that is,industrial structure is assumed to unaltered. The thesis introduces the multi- sector model as the I/O analysis framework and combines the method of index decomposing to analyze the residual value as two parts： the contribution of technological progress and the contribution of industrial structure, thus to extracts the change of industrial structure or the resource allocation from the factor of technical progress and develop the estimation model for the technological progress＇ contribution to economic growth based on the structure change. And in the end the contribution rate of technological progress to China＇s economic growth is demonstrated.