中国天然气产量发展趋势与多元化供应分析

PRODUCTION PREDICTION AND MULTI-SUPPLY OF NATURAL GAS IN CHINA

20世纪90年代以来,中国逐渐形成了六大产气区,推动了天然气产量和储量的快速增长。通过与美国的对比认为:2030年左右中国天然气产量将达到2000×108m3,进入产气高峰期,天然气高峰期年产量将超过原油高峰期年产量;2035年左右天然气产量将达到2500×108m3;预计到2050年,天然气年产量仍将保持在约2500×108m3。随着“西气东输”等管线的建成投产,天然气下游市场快速发育,天然气需求量迅猛增长,不久将会出现供需缺口。为了满足国内天然气需求,中国应抓住机遇,充分利用国内、国外两个市场,积极从国外引进管输气和液化天然气,迅速走天然气多元化供应的道路。实行多元化供应后,预计天然气年供应量的高峰值有可能达到4000×108m3,有益于改善中国的能源消费结构。面对当前迅速增加的天然气需求,应同时大力加强国内天然气勘探,迅速增加优质储量。从长远来看,中国低品位天然气资源丰富,应加强勘探并逐步开发利用。2020年以后,中国油气总产量将保持稳定,并略有增长。

Six gas-producing regions have sprung up in China since 1990's, thus leading to a rapid increase in natural gas production and reserves, By means of comparing with the United States, it was predicted that, in China, the annual gas production will reach to 200×109 m3 about 2030, thus entering into peak production period; the peak annual production of natural gas will exceed that of crude oil; and the annual gas production will rise up to 250 × 109 m3 around 2035 and keep up the same production to 2050. Along with the pipelines, such as 'West - East Gas Pipeline' and so on, being finished and put into production, the downstream markets are quickly expanding and the gas demand is greatly increasing, hence the gap between supply and demand will appear in the near future. In order to meet the needs for natural gas, China must seize hold of opportunities to implement multi-supply policy through making full use of both domestic and foreign markets to import pipeline gas and LNG from other countries. For this reason, it is estimated in the paper that the peak supply of natural gas can reach to 400 × 109 m3, which will be beneficial to improving the energy consumption structure in China. Domestic natural gas exploration should be strengthened in order to increase high-quality gas reserves to meet the rapidly-increasing needs for natural gas. Meanwhile, China is rich in low-grade gas resources which should be explored with main strength and developed and utilized gradually. The total production of crude oil and natural gas in China will keep stable, and increase a little after 2020.