海上机动目标群威胁预警建模及仿真实现

Precaution Model and Simulation Actualization on Threat of Maneuver Target Group on the Sea

在陆基弹道导弹与海上机动目标的攻防作战过程中,需要研究双方火力控制范围的变化情况,并对海上机动目标群的威胁进行报警。根据海上机动目标运动特性,提出用灰色模型与自回归时序AR组合建模方法构建机动目标运动预测模型。依据此模型对双方火力控制区的变化进行预测,最后给出了海上机动目标威胁预警仿真系统的实现思路。解决了陆基弹道导弹对抗海上机动目标群的作战保障工程的部分问题,具有较强军事应用价值。

During the attack-defense campaign of conventional land ballistic missile and maneuver target on the sea,it is necessary to study the change of both sides＇ power control ranges and give alarms on the threat of maneuver target group on the sea. According to the movement character of maneuver targets on the sea, this paper presents that the movement forecast model of maneuver targets is built by combining the grey model with the self-regression time series AR. The model forecasts the change of mutual firepower control sections. Finally it provides a thought of realizing the threat precaution simulating system of maneuver targets on the sea. Some problems, which lie in the campaign security work of conventional land ballistic missile countermining the maneuver target group on the sea,are solved. And this model deserves military applied value in practice.