摘要
本文用逐步回归分析法对影响大交盆地地下水位变化的因素进行变量筛选,找出影响地下水位变化的主要因素是近三年的降水量,得出相应的随机数学模型和平稳时间序列线性模型,用其对降水量进行了递推预报,进而对盆地的地下水位进行了预报.认为大交盆地的地下水资源目前不是超采状态.
Using successive regression analysis method, this paper makes a variable selection for the factors influencing the change of groundwater level of Dajiao basin. The chief factcr is found to be the precipitation of the recent three years. The corresponding stochastic mathematical model and steady time sequence linear model have been found. Using these models, the precipitation is forecasted recursive. Thence, the groundwater level of the basin is forecosted. It is considered that at present the groundwater resource of the Dajiao basin in not over-extracted.
出处
《勘察科学技术》
1995年第1期25-28,24,共5页
Site Investigation Science and Technology
关键词
降水量
地下水位
地下水
递推预报
动态分析
precipitation
groundwater table
sucessive regression analysis
steady time sequence
recurrence fcrecasting
