浙北地区汛期降水量的灰色马尔柯夫预测

Grey-Markov Forecasting of Rainfall during Rainy Season in Northern Zhejiang

以灰色系统理论为基础，结合马尔柯夫状态分析，建成浙北地区汛期降水量预测的灰色马尔柯夫模型．经检验，该模型精度等级为一级，并有可靠外推性．据此对１９９４年和１９９５年该地区的汛期降水量作出预测．本文对一般常用的状态分析方法作了改进，即状态数值化和状态计算定量→定性→定量，取得满意结果．

Based on Grey system theory integrated with Markov state analysis,the model for forecasting rainfallduring rainy season in Northern Zhejiang was developed.It was tested that the model is of high accuracy toscale one and trustworthy extension.Rainfall in the area during rainy season of 1994 and 1995 was forecastedaccording to the model.It was proved that satisfactory results can be obtained by applying the improved anal-ysis method,i.e.state quantification and state calculation in the quantitative→qualitative→quantitative pro-cess.