浙江东风暴雨天气的一种诊断统计预报方法

Diagnostis Statistical Forecast Method of Easterly Storm Rainfall Weather in Zhejiang Province

利用常规观测资料，对符合东风暴雨天气环境场条件的个例，通过逐步订正客观分析，计算诊断物理量，并把相关系数｜ｒ｜≥０．３２的物理量经处理后作为预报因子。采用逐步判别的统计分析方法，对７～９月发生在浙江省的东风暴雨天气建立时效为０～２４ｈ的展望预报方程。该预报方法所得的拟合率为８６％，对１９９４年８～９月的试报技巧评分为ＰＯＤ＝１．００，ＦＡＲ＝０．５７，ＣＳＩ＝０．４２。

Using conventional observation data,with individual instance of suiting weather environment field ofeast wind storm,the physical quantity of correlation coefficient|r|≥0.32 is as forcast factor under conditionsof(step by step)correcting,obective analysing,calculating and diagnosing. With statistical methods ofgradually adjudging, an expecting prediction equation available from zero to twenty-four hours is set up foreast wind storm occured in Zhejiang Province between August and September 1994. The result shows thattbe similar rate of tbe forecast method is 86%,test forecast skill score POD =1.00,FAR=0.57,CSI=0.42。