电离层参数行为的相轨道表示及其新的预测模型

REPRESENTATIONS OF THE PHASE TRAJECTORY ON THE BEHAVIOUR OF IONOSPHERIC PARAMETERS AND THE NEW MODEL OF PARAMETER'S PREDICTION

以不同时间尺度的电离层参数时间序列重构的相轨道，表征了该参数的复杂行为，并由此提出了参量预测的相空间相似及回归模型。两模型用于海口（２０°２＇Ｎ，１０２°２０＇Ｅ）ｆ０Ｆ２和Ｍ（３０００）Ｆ２的预测，取得了满意的结果。

A method of reconstructing phase trajectories by means of the time series data of ionosphere is given in iLls paper.It is found that the phase locus can perfectly characterize the complicated behavib:tirs if the patamdters.In the end of the paper.a phase space similarity model and a regression model fad the parameter's prediction is su.ggested according to the features of the phase orbit.Using the I,F, and M(3000)F2 data of Haikou(20°2'N,102°20'E) to these models,the satifactory results predicted by them are shown.