现代结构系统可靠性评估理论研究进展

ADVANCES IN THE MODERN RELIABILITY EVALUATION THEORY OF STRUCTURAL SYSTEMS

简要介绍大型结构系统可靠性评估理论的发展概况，对各个时期有代表性的估算方法进行了比较系统的分析，重点阐述了复杂系统可靠性精确评估理论的整体框架，对近年来兴起的随机有限元法，直接ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ模拟法，响应面法和广义失效面及广义母体分布重构方法的应用前景作了粗略的预测。

In this paper, a brief introduction is given to the developing status of modern reliability evaluation theory of a large scale structural systems, and a systematic analysis is made on those reliability evaluation methods which are widely used in the last decades. Emphasis is laid on the main principle of the cxact cvaluation theory of complex systems, and a prediction is made on the applicalion prospect of random finite elernent method, direct Monte Carlo simulation, response surface method and generalized reconstruction method, which come into fashion during the recent years.