可能性概念与可靠性分析

The Role of Possiblity Theory in Rdiahlity Analysis

本文讨论了可能性概念在大系统特别是人—机混合系统的可靠性分析的应用，依据Ｚａｄｅｈ的原始思想，人为差错率应该用可能性分析与概率分析来描述，前者描述差错的潜在可能性而后者描述差错发生的实际可能性。这一点，在大型灾害性事故的分析中具有特殊重要意义。

This paper discussed the role of possibility theory in quantitative approach to relia-bility of large-scale system,especially man-machine system, According the original ideadue to Prof.L.A. Zadeh,an errot rate may be associated both with a possibility distribu-tion and probability distribution. One described the potentiality for error,and the otherregarded as actuality for error. This is particularly important for analysis of big acci-dent.