江淮稻区稻纵卷叶螟的轨迹分析

TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS OF CNAPIIALOCROCIS MEDINALLS GUENEE FOR HUAIHE AND YANGTZE RIVER RICE AREAS

总结了轨迹分析方法的应用概况，并利用此方法分析了江淮稻区稻纵卷叶螟的虫源地及迁飞路径。从１０ａ历史资料中，选择了１５０个发蛾高峰期的７５０个研究日，对７个代表性地点进行了研究，根据由６月下旬到８月上旬划分出的４个时段，分别给出了这些地区精确的虫源地和概率贡献，以及具体的迁飞路径，并对照中国地形图分析了各次迁飞路线。文中最后对轨迹分析方法应用于害虫异地预测的作用进行了讨论。

Trajectory analysis was summarized and used for studying the migratory routes and population sourcesof rice leaf roller in Huaihe and Yangtze river rice areas. 150 peeks of moth apperance including 750 research daysduring ten years in 7 representative counties were selected and studied. The precise emigratory places, itS probabilitiesand migratory Pathways for 7 representative counties were given according to four Periods from late June to early August. Some explanations on misratory routeS with regard to geography were also supplied. The use of trajectory analysis on forecasting with source regions data of migrant insectS are also discussed.