部分测震学方法转入日常会商的研究

TURNING PART OF THE SEISMOMETRICAL METHODS INTO ORDINARY SEISMIC CONSIDERATION

科学地选取了８种可用于地震短期日常会商的测震学定量预报参量，编写了相应的计算程式及分析预报软件包。计算了新疆乌鲁木齐等６个重点监测区的预报参量背景值和异常定量割据指标。根据参量动态曲线与已有强震震例的对应关系，对各预报参量的预报效能、预报高效能区及盲区、异常出现时段参数均作了详细分析。最后简要介绍了最新实际应用中的预报实例。研究结果及研制的相应软件在实际日常会商中具有较强的实用性价值。

n the paper, 8 predictive parameters for short-term ordinary seismic.consideration were described in a quantitative and scientifical way,accompanied with related computing programme and forecasting software.Background values of predictive parameters and quantitative criterion index of anomalies for 6 principal monitoring 'areas,including Urumqi district were calculated.A detail analysis was made upon either the general predicting of high predicting efficiency regions,as well as the blind regions,6bnormal parameters etc., since comparing the dynamic curves of parameters with some real cases of great shocks. Briefly,it introduced the latest actual predicting examples,believing that the results and related software are of high practical value in the ordinary seismic consideration.