塔吉克斯坦吉萨尔─中国新疆阿克苏10年强震危险区的圈定研究

STUDYING SEISMIC RISK AREA IN JISAER (TAJIKISTAN) -ANSV (XINJIANG, CHINA) IN THE NEXT TEN YEARS

帕米尔与天山为当今大陆内部最活跃的地区之一。合作研究该处１０年强震危险区在联合国减轻自然灾害１０年活动中有重要现实意义。我们在共同编制１：５０００００地质图、新构造图、卫片解译图、活断层图、强震等震线图及在研究区域重力、磁场、地壳岩石圈厚度、基底等深线的基础上，圈出１４个５．５级以上地震危险区。卫片显示的线性构造是基底构造在地表的反映，已切到地表的线性构造─—活断层是重要的发震构造。危险区的大小按吉萨尔－阔克萨勒等震线理论模式圈定。震级大小按活断层闭锁段的长度或４级以上地震空区的范围估算。１０年内地震危险区的个数，据历史地震的活动水平判定。地震活动的时间及其顺序按强震迁移规律及危险区判据的充分程度确定。阿图什以东、乌什、吉萨尔以酉及加尔姆酉南是今后１０年的主要强震危险区。

Pamir and Tisnshan are the most active areas in .the continent.Studying their risk areas of macroearthquakes occurrence in the coming ten years is of great significance and can meet the activities of natural Calamity migration by United Nations. Based on geological map,neotectonic(active fault)map,satellite interpretation map and macroquake isoseisms map that drawn with scale 1:500 000,and according to gravity,magnetic field,thickness of the lithosphare,and basement contour, 14 seismic risk areas were drawn with magnitude more than 5. 5. The linear strctures showed from the satellite photo rectect tectonic activity of basement structures.They mainly are active faults,that is they are important earthquake tectonics.The joined segment of active fault is the seismic risk area. The range of risk area was drawn.by theorical model of isoseisms in Jisaer-Kuoksale and seismic areas with magnitude more than 6 were worked out. Based on the length of lock segment of active fault or the seismicity gap surrounded by earthquakes With Ms≥4,the magnitude was estimated according to the historical seismicity and the number of seismic risk area was determined also. Based on the macroquake migration law and the degree of risk area,the take and sequences of seismic ac.tivity were decided. The author suggests that the main macroquake risk areas might be in Wushi,east of Atushi,west of Jisaer and southwest of Gaerm in the next ten years.