河南省棉花产量的灰色－马尔柯夫预测模型

The Grey-Markov Forecasting Model on Cotton Yield in Henan Province

灰色－马尔柯夫预测模型对波动较大序列比较适合，根据该组合模型，用ＧＭ（１，１）灰色模型预测河南省棉花单产，再用马尔柯夫模型转移概率预测系统未来发展方向和修正预报产量。经拟合和预报，效果较好。

The grey-Markov forecasting model is suited to the succession with larger variation. The GM (1, 1) grey model has been applied to forecasts of cotton yield in Henan province. The transition possibility of Markov model has been used in predicting the future direction development of the system and amending the forecasted yield. The results are better in practice of the simulation and forecasting.