二氧化碳含量变化对海水碳酸盐系统的影响　1．大气CO_2含量变化及海水碳酸盐系统缓冲能力探讨

THE INFLUENCE OF THE CARBON DIOXIDE VARIATION ON THE CARBONATE SYSTEM OF SEAWATER

作者根据Ｋｅｅｌｉｎｇ等人提出的１９７０～１９８８年大气ＣＯ２含量随时间变比进行统计，指出大气ＣＯ２含量按指数变化递增。据此．对近年大气ＣＯ２含量进行预测，到２０５０年时将增至４５４×１０－６，较目前增加约３０％。由于大气ＣＯ２分压上升，导致ＣＯ２向海洋转移、作者采用Ｌｉ提出的指数变化模式，以Ｈｏｌｌａｎｄ给出的海水中无机碳逗留时间８．０×１０４年代入计算。到２０５０年时，海水碳酸盐系统仅可容纳来自大气的ＣＯ２１．１×１０１０ｔ。因此必须引起人们控制ＣＯ２向大气的排放。鉴于计算过程中未考虑海水有机生物体的影响及颗粒ＣａＣＯ３对缓冲ＣＯ２所作贡献，因此，实际情况会好于本文计算结果。

Based on the data given by Keeling et al., the author obtained the statistical result which showed an exponential relationship between the CO2 partial pressure (Pco2) and time from 1970 to 1988. With the relationship, if extrapolation is applicable, a prediction of the CO2 content of 454 × 10-6 in the year 2050 can be given,which is 30% higher than that of the present. The atmospheric CO2 content rising will lead to the transfer of CO, from the air to the ocean. Using the exponential model and the residence time of ocean inorganic carbon of 8. 0 × 104 year given by Holland, an estimation can be conducted. It is showed that of the CO2 transferred from the air to the ocean only about 1. 1 × 1010 tons will be buffered by the carbonate system by 2050, which calls for atten non to the importance of controlling CO,output to the air by human activities. In the above calculation the effects of organisms and the buffer of particulate CaCO3 in seawater have not been considered, otherwise the capacity of CO, buffer will be larger in seawater.