广州市流动人口管理研究──现状、预测与对策

A RESSANCH ON ADMINISTRATION OF FLOATING POPULATON IN GUANGZHOU CITY──ITS CHARACTERISTICS PREDICTION AND COUNTERMEASURES

广州市是我国流动人口最多的大城市之一，其流动人口具有来源地广泛、目的多样、性别比高、年龄构成轻、文化素质不高以及滞留时间长的特点．现在，流动人口的劳务、计划生育和社会治安管理中存在着诸多问题。１９７０年到１９９３年，广州市流动人口以每年平均１５．１８％的速度增长。为了预测其未来的发展趋势，本文根据灰色系统理论，建立ＧＭ（１，１）模型。该模型精度较高，通过检验，依据此模型对未来５年内广州市流动人口进行了预测。最后，针对现状与发展趋势，本文提出如下管理对策：１．强调对流动人口的统计汇报和调查研究；２．应加强对流动人口的执法和立法工作；３．建立统一的权威的流动人口管理机构；４．重视省际劳务管理的合作与协调；５．建议将流动人口纳入城市规划；６．指出应强化流动人口的专项管理。

uangzhou City is one of the largest cities which have big amount of floating population' The floating population of Guangzhou is characterized by the high ratio of sex , widesources ) various business goals, younger age, lower education level and a longer stay. Itsadministration, labour service, birth control and public security are found out many problems. From 1979 to 1993, the floating population in Guangzhou increased at a rate of15. 18% per year on average. A GM (1, 1) model has been set up to forecast the fUturefloating population on a basis of Grey Systems Theory, from which a prediction of floatingpopulation in Guangzhou in the fUture five years is made in this paper. Some administrativecountermeasures are put forward: 1) to give an emphasis on the statistics and study of floating population. 2) to stress the work of the la'v enforcement and legislation. 3) to set upan unique administrative establishment. 4 ) to strengthen the cooperation of labour serviceadministration between the city and provinces. 5) to bring floating population into urbanPlanning. 6) to strengthen the specific administration on floating population.