摘要
广州市是我国流动人口最多的大城市之一,其流动人口具有来源地广泛、目的多样、性别比高、年龄构成轻、文化素质不高以及滞留时间长的特点.现在,流动人口的劳务、计划生育和社会治安管理中存在着诸多问题。1970年到1993年,广州市流动人口以每年平均15.18%的速度增长。为了预测其未来的发展趋势,本文根据灰色系统理论,建立GM(1,1)模型。该模型精度较高,通过检验,依据此模型对未来5年内广州市流动人口进行了预测。最后,针对现状与发展趋势,本文提出如下管理对策:1.强调对流动人口的统计汇报和调查研究;2.应加强对流动人口的执法和立法工作;3.建立统一的权威的流动人口管理机构;4.重视省际劳务管理的合作与协调;5.建议将流动人口纳入城市规划;6.指出应强化流动人口的专项管理。
uangzhou City is one of the largest cities which have big amount of floating population' The floating population of Guangzhou is characterized by the high ratio of sex , widesources ) various business goals, younger age, lower education level and a longer stay. Itsadministration, labour service, birth control and public security are found out many problems. From 1979 to 1993, the floating population in Guangzhou increased at a rate of15. 18% per year on average. A GM (1, 1) model has been set up to forecast the fUturefloating population on a basis of Grey Systems Theory, from which a prediction of floatingpopulation in Guangzhou in the fUture five years is made in this paper. Some administrativecountermeasures are put forward: 1) to give an emphasis on the statistics and study of floating population. 2) to stress the work of the la'v enforcement and legislation. 3) to set upan unique administrative establishment. 4 ) to strengthen the cooperation of labour serviceadministration between the city and provinces. 5) to bring floating population into urbanPlanning. 6) to strengthen the specific administration on floating population.
出处
《热带地理》
北大核心
1995年第1期49-55,共7页
Tropical Geography
关键词
广州市
流动人口
管理对策
Guangzhou City
Foloating population
Administrative countermeasures