广东省粮食问题的灰色系统分析

A GREY SYSTEM ANALYSIS OF THE GRAIN PROBLEM IN GUANGEONG PROVINCE

“粮食足，人心定，农业稳，天下安”。粮食问题是当今广东农业问题的焦点。在定性分析了广东粮食生产现状的基础上，运用了灰色系统的理论和方法，从定量的角度剖析了广东粮食生产存在的问题，预测其发展变化趋势，从而得出了缓解广东粮食问题的对策措施。

ccording to the information of statistics, grain problem in Guangdong is discussed in four aspects by the theory and method of poy system. 1) By analysing the Changes of the total output of grain from 1983 to 1993 in Guangdong, it can ho seen that grain production showed a tendency to decrease with lagrge undulatoa, which has given bad effects on the social-economic development of Guangdong. 2) From the analysis of grey related degree (GLD), Where six indexes that have more effect on grain import are used, it is concluded that the decline in investment of agricultural capital construction is an important factor to influence grain problem. 3) By grey method (1, 1) the varying trend of grain production from 1995 to 2005 is predicted, it is held that me contradiction between grain supply and demand is becoming severe year by yest, and its mitigation will be very arduous, 4) With decision-making method of OLD, in which eight indexes that have more effect on the total grain production are used, it is shown that per unit area yield of grain has the meat influences on the total grain production, The author considers that increasing investment and raising per unit area yield of grain are the key measures to solve the grain problem in Guangdong.