热带气旋对南海各海区影响程度的诊断

A DIAGNOSTIC ON INFLUENCE DEGREE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TO VARIOUS SEA AREAS IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

根据１９４９—１９９２年南海热带气旋资料，分为厄尔尼诺年和非厄尔尼诺年，将南海划分成４个海区，采用灰色聚类方法，找出特征值Ｎ。然后，用这Ｎ值诊断厄尔尼诺和非厄尔尼诺年在南海的热带气旋对４个海区的影响程度。

ased on 44 years of data from 1949 to 1992 which is divided into E1 Nino year and non-E1 Nino year, the South China Sea is divided into four seas. The characteristic value N is found by polyseric method of the gray color series, and used to diagnose the influence degree of tropical cyclone on four seas. N varies directly with the number, intensity and continuous time of tropical cyclone. Otherwise expressed, the more N, the more influence degree it has. The result is that influence, degree of tropical cyclone in non-E1 Nino year is greater than in E1 Nino year, and N is the most biggest value in Northeast seas, but is the smallest in Southwest seas, whether it is an E1 Nino year or not. But, in consideration to an individual cyclone, the result is different from the above mentioned conclusion.