太平洋几种海面要素的升降趋势及其对海平面上升的影响

THE RISE OR FALL TRENDS OF SEVERAL SEA SURFACE ELEMENTS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND THEIR IMPACTS ON SEA LEVEL RISE

对ＣＯＡＤＳ资料中１９５０－１９９２年太平洋４°×８°方区的海水表层温度及海面气温、气压、风速序列数据，进行了时间序列分析。分析结果表明：太平洋海表气温和水温年上升率分别为０．００６３℃·ａ（－１）和０．００２６℃·ａ（－１）。两者的变化趋势在赤道太平洋都有一个年上升率高值区；而在东海以北的西北太平洋广大海区，都有一个年下降率的低值区。西太平洋海面气压呈上升趋势，东太平洋则相反。气温和水温的升降区域分布特征与风速分量增强和减弱的变化趋势有关。文章还指出，中国和日本沿岸今后几十年海平面变化趋势的预测模式，应以太平洋或全球海平面上升趋势的预测为基础，加上本海区海平面的局地变化订正。

Time series analysis is conducted on sea surface air temperature, water temperature, air pressure and wind speed on COADS data for 4°×8°squares in the Pacific Ocean during 1950-1992. The analytical results of the rates of the rise show that the sea surface air temperature and water temperature are rising in the Pacific Ocean with rise rates of 0. 0063℃ and 0. 0026℃/yr respectively. The trends have both a high-value zone of rising rates in the equatorial Pacific and a low-value zone of falling rates in the vast sea area of Northwest Pacific, north of the northern East China Sea. The regional distribution feature of rise or fall of air temperature and water temperature is related to the variation trend of reinforcement and weakening of the components of vector wind. At the same time,the influences of the rise or fall trends of the above mentioned sea surface ele-ments in the Pacific upon the rise or fall of sea level in different sea areas are also discussed. It is proposed that for predicting the variation trend of sea level off China and Japan in future decades,the forecasting model based on the Pacific or global sea level rise trend is adopted while considering the local changes in the sea level of the particular sea area.