作物气象灾害危害性的多目标灰色局势决策

COUNTERMEASURE IN MULTIPURPOSE GREY SITUATIONS AGAINST THE THREAT OF COLD WEATHER,DROUGHT AND FLOOD ON CROPS

利用灰色局势决策中的最优局势概念及其决策方法，对广西主作物冷、旱、涝方面的不同灾害类型，设置作物气候减产率、单位面积产值损失、灾害机率三个方面的分析目标，并以灾害类型作事件集（Ａ＝ａｉ，ｉ＝１，２，…，ｎ）、以广西８个地区作对策集（Ｂ＝ｂｊ，ｊ＝１，２，…，８），构造成多目标灰色局势。经局势优化后，得到更为明晰的各地区冷、旱、涝灾害危害性的决策结果，从而了解到７种灾害类型中，哪一种类型的灾害对哪一个地区的危害性最严重。

Using optimum situational concept and its countermeasure method in measure-taking for grey situations,three amounts of climatic decrement of crop yield,loss of output by value per unit area and occurrence rate of disaster are established for analyses of types of damages caused on principal Guangxi crops by drought,flood or cold.It forms a multipurpose grey situation with event items(A=a.,i=1,2,3 ,. . . .,n) for types of disaster and countermeasure item(B=bj,j=1,2,3, . . . .,8) for the eight prefectures of Guangxi.The situation is optimized before presenting an explicit result of countermeasure for the prefectures.