Bayes准则在热带作物生态适应性研究中的应用

APPLICATION OF BAYES’DECISION RULE TO THE STUDY OF ECOLOGICAL ADAPTATABLITY OF TROPICAL CROPS

以橡胶为例，选取了与其生长、发育和产量形成关系密切的年均温度、极端温度、年降水量和台风影响次数作为环境指标，采用概率论中的贝叶斯准则计算了在实现一组环境因子下，其产量不同等级状态出现的条件概率，即后验概率，以此作为研究热带作物生态适应性的量度。结果表明，效果良好，与实际较为吻合。

A novel multifactorial evaluation method were developed on the basis of rubber trees byemploying environment indexes closely related to the growth, development and production ofthe crop,such as annual mean temperature,extreme temperture,precipitation and typhoons. The Bayes’decision rule in the probability theory were employed to computerize the condi-tional probability,namely posterior probability,occurring in different status of crop produc-tion under a consideration of a group of environment indexes;This probability was used as ameasurement to study the ecological adaptation of tropical crops.Results show that thiscomprehensive multi一factorial evaluation method coincided with the field investigation.