上荆江沙市至郝穴河段近期河床演变及过洪能力分析

Analyses for upper Jingjiang River's recent evolution and flood discharging capacity

在大量实测河道资料基础上，分析了上荆江临江河段演变的基本规律、发展趋势及河道过洪能力。通过分析上荆江主流变化与岸滩变化的关系、深泓纵向冲淤变化和护岸段近岸河床冲淤变化，初步预测了上荆江河道发展趋势。最后还分析了上荆江近期过洪能力的变化，通过分析后认为在三峡工程建成之前，荆江仍然面临着大洪水的威胁，因此必须重视河道观测工作，因势利导加强河势控制工程，改善近岸河床冲刷的现状，保障荆江地区的安全。

Based on a lot of observed river data, analyses were conducted on the evolution process and the flood discharging capacity of the shashi to Haoxue stretch of upper Jingjiang River. On the basis of the evolutive law of upper Jingjiang River, namely the relationship between changes in main stream and changes in shore beach, changes in erosion and siltation along the deep draft channel, and changes in erosion and siltation at river bed near protected river bank, the preliminary prediction was made on the trend of its future evolution. From the changes in the flood d'ischarging capacity of upper Jingjiang River, it may be seen that the Jingjiang River would be faced with the threat from a large flood, before completion of Three Gorges Project. In order to ensure the safety of Jingjiang district, therefore, more attention must be paid to observing the river, controlling the river regime by making the best use of the situation, and relieving the river bed near bank from erosion.