河流流量多元单值化新技术──投影追踪回归

A new technique for monodromizing the multivalued river stage-discharge curve

水位流量关系单值化技术的应用，大大减少了一些测站的流量测验次数。然而对于水情复杂河段的测站，由于缺少有效的技术手段，流量测次每年高达一、二百次，不便实行流量巡测。本文提出一种应用投影追踪回归进行流量多元单值化的方法，为水情复杂河段测站的流量测次精减提供一个新的技术手段。该方法用迭代产生的一系列冷函数的和逼近流量模型Ｑ＝ｆ（ｘ），不需事先假定模型的结构，建模极为简便。选取水情较为复杂的螺山水文站作为应用实例，计算中取水位、涨落率、上下落差共４个因子进行投影追踪回归建模。经误差统计，有８４％的实测点对流量多元单值模型的偏差小于５％，符合规范要求。

Application of the technique for monodromizing the multivalued river stagedischarge curve results in a reduction of times of the discharge measuring. For those hydrologic stations located on the river stretch where the hydrologic condition is highly complicated, because of their poor technic means, the discharge measuring would be carried out 100￣200 times per year, and then the mobile discharge measuring couldn't be performed. In this paper, a method of monodromizing the multivalued river stage-discharge curve using the project-tracing regressing is presented. It is a new technical means for reducing the times of the discharge measuring on the river stretches of complicated hydrologic condition. In such amethod, establishing the discharge model using the sum of a series of functions generated by iteration for approaching the model Q = f(x) is very convenient, without assuming the model's structure in advance. The Luoshan Hydrologic Station where the hydrologic condition is very complicated was selected as a case example of applying this method. In model establishing, the water level, the rate of rise, the rate of subsidence, and the drop were selected as factors for project-tracing regressing. By error estimate, 84% observed data's deviations from the monodromized discharge model are less than 5% , meeting the requirement ofrelevant specifications.