西江天河站洪水特性分析与洪峰预报方案研究

Analysis of Flood Characteristics at Tianhe Station on the West River and Study on the Flood Peak Forecasting Scheme

通过西江干流、珠江三角洲河口区的天河水文站的洪水特性分析，根据上游的高要站洪峰水位及石角、天河站同时水位，对天河站的洪峰水位及出现时间进行预报。对受潮汐顶托及网河交汇影响，不便用合成流量法来进行实时水文预报的站点，用相应水位法进行预报，也能取得较好的预报精度。且简单快捷，适用性强。

By analizing the charactetistics of flood occurring at Tianhe station on the main stem of West River,flood peak level at Tianhe station and its occurrence time can be forecast according to the peak level at Gaoyao station upstream and simultaneous level at Shijiao and Tianhe. FOr those stations where real time hydrologic forecast cannot be carried out by resultant discharge methed due to the effects of tidal activities and converging river network a simple and quick forecast can be conducted with better accuracy and high adaptability by using corresponding level method.