对山西地区形变场与地震活动规律的讨论

Discussion on the Deformation Field and the Seismicity Law in Shanxi Region

本文对山西地区地壳形变的历史和现状做了回顾，并从大范围地震活动时空规律出发，收集了现有强震活动的记录及相应的研究成果，对前４个地震活动高潮期中地震的时空分布规律和空间迁移特征进行了论述，并对第５高潮期强震分布的区域提出了新的看法。同时，结合现有的地壳形变资料，讨论了山西地区的地震形势，认为山西临汾地区，仍有７级左右的发震背景，但近期尚无明显的中短期形变、应变前兆存在，故认为近期发生强震的可能性不大。

The history and statu quo of the crustal deformation in Shanxi region have been looked back in the pa- per.Starting with the time-space law of the large-scale seismicity,the strong earthquake records and its corresponding research achieyements have been collected the time-space distribution law and the spatialmi-gration characters of the earthquakes in the previous 4 seismicity peak periods have been outlined, and the new view-points on the strong earthquake distribution region in the 5th peak period have been put up.At the same time, the seismic trend of Shanxi region has been discussed in combination with the present crustal deformation data.It is suggested that there is a seismogenic background of about M7.0 earthquake in Linfen region, but there are not obvious medium and shortterm precursors of the deformation and strain in recent time,so believes that the probability of triggering strong earthquake is light in the near future.