长江三峡水利工程对疟疾流行影响的预测研究

PREDICTIVE IMPACT ON MALARIA PREVALENCE BY HYDRAULIC PROJECT OF THREE GORGES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER

疟疾在三峡地区曾广为流行,经防治后,1985年发病率已下降为2.2/万,但仍有34.7%的乡发生疟疾,局部暴发点和暴发流行的潜在因素依然存在。预计在水利工程施工期间,有疟疾暴发流行的危险.水库建成后的灌溉网络和低洼浸水地区,可能扩大按蚊的孳生场所,加剧疟疾流行。

Malaria had a wide distribution and high prevalence throughout the Three Gorges region of the Yangtze River. After antimalarial program, its incidence rate was reduced to 2.2‰。 in 1985, but sporadic cases still occurred in 34.7% of the townships and local outbreaks were not uncommon. Therefore, potential factors of malaria outbreak are still present.It is predicted that maximum risk of malaria outbreak will take place, during con-struction and after the completion of the reservior, the breeding sites of Anopheles would be extended to irrigation network, low-lying of flooded land, and malaria preva-lence might be increased.