长江外贸集装箱运量预测和码头装卸工艺优选

Prediction of Route Freight Volume of Foreign Trade Containers and Optimization of Loading/unloading Facilities of Wharves along Yangtze River

本文利用新陈代谢ＧＭ（１，１）模型、二次指数滑动平均法、计量经济学模型３种预测模型对上海港进行了外贸集装箱吞吐量的预测，并结合考虑长江各主要港口在共同航线上的运量分配及航线运量占该港吞吐量的比重，对各港口进行了外贸集装箱吞吐量和主要航线运量预测．然后，运用多目标决策理论中的线性分配法与层次分析法，分析了不同运量水平下港口装卸工艺系统的优选问题．并利用外贸集装箱的预测结果，得到了这些港口装卸工艺的优选方案．

This paper predicts the throughput of foreign trade containers of the port of Shanghai by using three prediction models: GM(1, 1), the Double Exponential Smoothing Model and the Economatric Model. Using the former two models and considering the freight volume assignment of each main port along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the same route and the proportion of the route freights volume to the throughput of the port of Shanghai,the prediction of the throughput of these ports and the freight volume in the main routes is carried out. The results, methods and ways of prediction are presented.Using the linearly partitioned method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process of multi-object decision theory, the loading/unloading facilities at different throughput levels are optimized.According to the prediction results presented here the optimal loading/unloading facilities of these container wharves are decided.